Why is Vietnamese football falling behind Thailand and Indonesia?

You will hate me for this: Vietnamese football has not progressed in the last five years. We are deluding ourselves with the 2026 AFF Cup trophy and the ticket to the final round of World Cup 2026 qualifiers. But looking at the data, looking at how Thailand and Indonesia have risen, I see a harsh reality: we are standing still while the world moves. Let me tell you about the night I stayed awake in Busan, watching the 2026 AFF Mitsubishi Electric Cup final between Vietnam and Thailand. I have followed Vietnamese football since my days as an economics student, when I wrote my first tactical analysis articles on a personal blog. That night, I saw a Vietnam team with 60% ball possession but without a single clear chance in the first half. We passed sideways, passed backward, then stalled. Meanwhile, Thailand with only 40% possession but every counter-attack was as sharp as a knife. I remember 2026, when Park Hang-seo arrived and changed everything. He built a defensive counter-attacking style based on tactical discipline and fighting spirit. That brought resounding success: AFF Cup 2026, Asian Cup 2026 semi-final, World Cup 2026 final qualifiers. But the question I raised in 2026, when we lost 1-3 to Saudi Arabia at home, was: can this style develop further? The answer, three years later, is no. While Thailand transitioned from defensive counter-attacking to proactive ball possession under Alexandre Polking, and Indonesia invested heavily in naturalizing high-quality players from the Netherlands, Vietnam remains stuck in Park Hang-seo's formula. We still play with three centre-backs, still rely on fast counter-attacks, still wait for individual moments of brilliance from players like Nguyen Quang Hai or Nguyen Tien Linh. Data from VangBong.vn Player Depth Index shows: the Vietnam national team's squad depth is only average compared to the region. While Thailand has at least 5 players playing in the J-League and K-League, Indonesia has 7 naturalized players playing in Europe, Vietnam has only 2 players playing abroad, and both are in lower divisions. This is not a coincidence. Look at how we train our youth. While Thailand regularly sends U23 players to Japan for training camps, and Indonesia builds football academies with European standards, we still rely on club youth training centers with limited facilities. I visited a youth training center in Hanoi in 2026, and I was shocked to see young players still training on worn-out artificial turf, with exercises that had no support from data analysis technology. This leads to a consequence: Vietnamese players lack game-reading skills and tactical adaptability. Look at how Thailand turned the game around in the AFF Cup 2026 second leg final. When they fell behind 1-0, they did not panic. They calmly adjusted, switched from 4-3-3 to 4-2-3-1, pushed their line high and created constant pressure. In contrast, when Vietnam fell behind, we often fell into confusion, lacking a Plan B. I recall the match against Indonesia in the World Cup 2026 qualifiers in March 2026. It was a match I predicted beforehand: Indonesia would win. Why? Because they have players like Rafael Struick and Ivar Jenner - young players trained in the Netherlands, with superior physique, speed, and game-reading ability. As for us, we still rely on aging players like Do Hung Dung or Nguyen Trong Hoang, who have given their all but no longer have the strength to keep up with modern football intensity. Another issue I want to point out: we are losing the physical battle. While other Southeast Asian teams have adopted modern physical training methods, using GPS and data analysis to optimize performance, we still rely on traditional exercises. As a result, in the final minutes of matches, Vietnamese players visibly tire. Look back at the match against Iraq in the World Cup 2026 qualifiers, we led 1-0 until the 85th minute, then conceded two goals in the last five minutes. That was not tactics, that was physical condition. But I am not criticizing one-sidedly. I also see positive signals. The appointment of coach Kim Sang-sik in 2026 was a step in the right direction. He brings a different football philosophy, emphasizing ball possession and proactive attacking. However, I fear we are repeating the old mistake: expecting a foreign savior to change everything, while the problem lies in the youth training system and infrastructure. Look at how Thailand rebuilt their team after the 2026 AFF Cup disappointment. They did not just change the coach; they overhauled the entire youth training system. They created a professional U23 league, linked with Japanese clubs for young players to train abroad, and invested heavily in data analysis. As a result, they regained the Southeast Asian throne in just two years. As for us, we are still debating whether to naturalize players. Let me be clear: I am not against naturalization. But I oppose using naturalization as a stopgap solution. Indonesia has naturalized players strategically - they choose young players with potential, playing in European leagues, who can contribute to the team for the next 10 years. Meanwhile, if we naturalize, we often naturalize players past their peak, like the case of Doan Van Hau - although I appreciate his contributions. So what do we need to do? I have three proposals. First, we need to invest heavily in youth training, not just in facilities but also in coaching methods. We need to learn from the Japanese and Korean models, where young players are trained systematically from a very young age, with the support of technology and data analysis. Second, we need to create conditions for young players to go abroad, not just to major leagues but also to quality leagues like J-League 2 or K-League 2. Third, we need to change our football philosophy, no longer accepting negative defensive play but moving toward proactive ball possession. I know many will say I am being too harsh, that we have done wonderful things in recent years. And they are right. But I am talking about the future. We are at a crossroads: either continue clinging to past glory and fall behind, or accept the harsh truth and change. I choose change. Look at the current FIFA rankings. Thailand has overtaken us by 10 places. Indonesia, a team we used to beat easily, is now on par with us. If we do not act now, in five years, we will become a third-rate team in Southeast Asia. I do not mean to say that I was right when I predicted Lee Seung-woo would not succeed in Europe. I just want to say that sometimes, looking at data and trends, we can foresee the future. And the future of Vietnamese football, without fundamental change, will be very bleak. Finally, I want to pose a question to all those who love Vietnamese football: do we want to become a strong team in Southeast Asia, or do we want to become a team that can compete in Asia? If the answer is the latter, we need to change right now. Kazan did not collapse in one night. It collapsed when Germany believed it could not collapse. And Vietnamese football, if we continue to be complacent, will collapse not in one match, but in a decade of decline. But I still believe. I believe in the potential of Vietnamese players, in the passion of the fans. I just do not believe in the current leadership, in the way we are running our football. It is time to wake up. People turned off when I mentioned Lee Seung-woo. Four years later, they turned back on to listen to me. I hope that, four years from now, when I mention the decline of Vietnamese football, people will not say I was right. I hope I am wrong. But data does not lie. And if we do not change, I will not be wrong.